Market forces at play in this trade lane make for interesting times.
As is usually the case at this time of the year ship lines introduce (or try to) Peak Season Surcharges. In this regard 2011 is no different. I have received numerous email updates from all the major ship lines notifying of pending increases namely –
effective 15 July USD250 / 20’ USD500 / 40’ (FAILURE)
effective 15 August USD250 / 20’ USD500 / 40’
You will note (or be already aware) the supposed 15 July implementation failed. This is the first failure of such that I am aware of since the Global Financial Crises struck. It is my understanding that what perhaps contributed to the failure was (again for the first time since the GFC) extra tonnage (more ships) were introduced to the market. French line – CMA CGM (in partnership with ANL) announced a new service which will initially offer fortnightly sailings. However, come September once all vessels committed to this service are made available will ultimately offer weekly sailings. It should be noted transit times compare favourably against current service from Northern China and Korean ports only.
Further to this new service by CMA CGM, Maersk have increased their frequency to bi-weekly from Europe and Asia. This announcement was made with immediate effect. Maersk operate a transhipment hub in Tanjung Pelepas (TPP), Malaysia to Auckland. Maersk’s European & Asian sourced shipments are routed through TPP enroute to NZ. This service was weekly into Auckland & Port Chalmers only however with the introduction of said service there will now be direct services into the additional ports of Tauranga & Lyttelton.
All in all this market (Asian) is very different when compared to the same time last year. Looking back through my records 2010 was thus
G.R.I effective 15 July 2010 USD250 / 20’ USD500 / 40’
General Rate Increase
R.R effective 15 August 2010 USD250 / 20’ USD500 / 40’
P.S.S effective 15 September 2010 USD 250 / 20’ USD500 / 40’
Peak Season Surcharge
All in all the market absorbed USD750 / 20’ USD1500 / 40’ increase over a 3 month period. 2011 is certainly proving a completely different environment. At time of writing I would strongly suspect (my suspicion only) that the tabled 15 August PSS increase will also fail. My mind then goes to 15 September which will probably be the next favoured date for the shiplines to manufacture an increase. With the extra capacity being introduced to the market & the NZ domestic economy hardly booming I do wonder if this two will result in failure. Only time will tell.